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Analysis and opinion · Book review · 8 Oct 2026 · 6 min

The Next China Is Still China

What China's new phase means for entrepreneurs: not an end point, but a reset.

By China Connect

The film is in Dutch.

Book: The Next China Is Still China
Author: Joe Ngai en Nick Leung (McKinsey)
Published: Scribner, 2026

The film 06:03

The presentation 23 slides

The Next China Is Still China · Translated from the Dutch original.

01 Opening: the book, the authors and the structure of the presentation
04 The question: what is the next China, and the authors’ answer
08 Why China stays unique: five forces, innovation, involution and no second China
13 Winning in the next China: the playbook for companies
16 China’s future, the caveats and what it means for entrepreneurs

Book review · Joe Ngai and Nick Leung (McKinsey) · The Next China Is Still China · What China’s new phase means for entrepreneurs · ChinaConnect · October 2026 — 01 / 23

Programme · Four parts, one question · If growth slows, where is the next growth market? And what does the answer mean for our business? · The question: what is the next China? · Why China stays unique · Winning in the next China · China’s future, and what it means for us · ChinaConnect · The Next C — 02 / 23

The book · An insider’s playbook for the new era · Scribner, June 2026 · 336 pages · 14 chapters in three parts · Joe Ngai · Chairman of McKinsey Greater China · Nick Leung · Senior partner, lead director of the McKinsey Global Institute · Part I · How we got here · McKinsey’s early years in China · — 03 / 23

Part 1 of 4 · The question · At Davos, CEOs wondered whether their China strategy still works. Where is the next China? — 04 / 23

The debate · Glass half empty or half full? · Half empty: the pessimists · growth a year, after double digits in the 2000s · 18.9% · youth unemployment in August 2025, a record · gross margin in the solar panel sector (2024) · −9.5% · foreign investment in 2025 ($107 bn) · Half full: the optimists · — 05 / 23

The core thesis · Joe Ngai · “The next China is China.” · Not a collapse but a reset. The previous growth phase ran on grit and ambition, the next on skill and technology. · Sources: the book’s prologue; HKU Business School (2026) — 06 / 23

Scale · Even slower, it is still huge · of world GDP; only the US is larger · of global industrial output · countries with China as their largest trading partner · 4.5% · expected growth in 2026, more than double that of rich countries · Even 2% annual growth adds an entire Indian economy to the wor — 07 / 23

Part 2 of 4 · Why China stays unique · The difference lies in structure, not sentiment. — 08 / 23

A market like no other · Five forces that together form a unique ecosystem · Scale and growth · The world’s largest consumer base, combined with still solid growth. · Speed · Launch, adjust and iterate in real time. Data on Saturday, execution on Monday. · Young, adventurous consumers · Digital, cur — 09 / 23

Innovation · From copier to innovator · China has long ceased to be a low-wage country. It is a country of skills, research and fast adoption. · McKinsey once taught Ping An how insurance works. Today European insurers travel to Shenzhen to learn from Ping An. · of global R&D spending · of all p — 10 / 23

Involution · 内卷 · The world’s toughest gym · So much competition that everyone runs harder and nobody gets ahead. The story of one latte in Shanghai: · Starbucks · $4.8 · Luckin · $1.5 · 2022–now · Robot coffee · $0.7 · “Win here, win anywhere.” · BYD net profit in the first quarter, after price cut — 11 / 23

China + 1? · There is no second China · “You come to China for the quantity of skills in one location.” · Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, quoted in the book · Alternatives cost more · Higher costs, logistics delays, quality problems and little accumulated know-how. · Diversification is often Chinese · Those — 12 / 23

Part 3 of 4 · Winning in the next China · Yesterday’s strategies are no longer enough. — 13 / 23

Multinationals · The foreign premium is gone · Apple · Huawei, Xiaomi · Nike · Anta, Li Ning · GM, Honda, VW · BYD, Geely · Local players decide on the spot. Multinationals wait for approval from Tokyo, Stuttgart or New York. · Three responses · China for China · Local autonomy, own decisions. Examp — 14 / 23

The playbook · Five lessons from part II · From selling to China to building in China, within Chinese ecosystems. · Reset your compass · China is no longer a ‘second home market’ for selling products. Question every assumption. · Think like an entrepreneur · Speed and local decision-making power. Ru — 15 / 23

Part 4 of 4 · The future of China · What now, China? And what does it mean for us? — 16 / 23

The big shift · From grit to skill · Previous phase · The next China · Growth engine · Labour, infrastructure, work ethic · Skills, technology, innovation · Economy · Heavy manufacturing · Services and intellectual property · Growth rate · ± 10% a year · 4–5%, with a large absolute contribution · Ch — 17 / 23

What now, China? · Five themes that will shape the next decade · Soft power · From hard goods to brands and culture: Pop Mart (Labubu), MiHoYo games, Luckin in New York. · AI, the Chinese way · Open-source models from DeepSeek, Moonshot, MiniMax. ‘Tokens’ as a new export product. · Robots · AI’s nex — 18 / 23

Outlook · The world in 2030, as seen by McKinsey · Five things McKinsey considers certain, from the perspective of the next China. · Geopolitics grows more complex · A fragmented technology landscape, more tariffs and protectionism. · China leads in industrial might · High-tech production with autom — 19 / 23

Caveats · Five question marks · The book is persuasive, but it remains a plea. This belongs in the picture too. · Growth is cooling · 4.3% growth in Q2 2026; retail sales grew barely 0.2% in April. · Growth without profit · Involution squeezes margins and keeps loss-making ‘zombie firms’ alive (Brue — 20 / 23

What does this mean for us? · Six actions for European entrepreneurs · Go and see · China is the world’s toughest gym. To know tomorrow’s norm, go and look there today. · Expect them here · BYD, Geely, Luckin, Pop Mart: Chinese players are coming to Europe, with price and speed. · Collaborate · From — 21 / 23

Sources · Further reading · Ngai, J. and Leung, N. (2026). The Next China Is Still China: An Insider's Playbook for Winning in the New Era. Scribner. Prologue and chapter 1. · McKinsey & Company. McKinsey on Books: The Next China Is Still China; 'The two stories of China'; 'The world in 2030' (2 — 22 / 23

In closing · The next China is still China · Win there, win anywhere. Go and see for yourself. · chinaconnect.be → — 23 / 23

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